Windows 10 security cover doubled as PC prices stay high

Analysts quoted by Reseller News on 3 November say Windows 11 upgrades have largely stopped about a year after Windows 10 support ended, and PC pricing relief may not arrive until 2028 or 2029. The analysts disagree on timing but agree prices won't stabilise in 2027. Any business still running Windows 10 now faces two rising costs at once, because Microsoft's paid security cover doubled last month while replacement hardware stays expensive.

What changed

Microsoft's commercial Extended Security Updates (ESU) rose from US$61 to US$122 per device when year two began on 14 October. Year three costs US$244, and the programme ends on 10 October 2028. TechTarget's worked example of 200 devices comes to US$24,400 for year two and US$48,800 for year three at standard prices. Microsoft sells ESU in whole years, and an organisation joining in year two pays for year one too, so a first-time buyer pays US$183 per device today. Those are US dollar figures, and NZ buyers need a local quote from their licensing partner.

Hardware demand is falling because prices have climbed. Counterpoint says global PC shipments fell 21% to 57 million units in the September quarter, and it blames higher memory and component costs. The firm forecasts a 27% fall in the December quarter and broadly flat shipments through 2027. Microsoft reported on 28 October that Windows OEM and Devices revenue fell 22%, and one summary of its outlook points to a mid-30% decline next quarter.

Where NZ sits

StatCounter puts Windows 10 at 20.34% of NZ desktop Windows use in October, against 25.13% worldwide. Those shares mix home and business machines and shift from month to month, so they're a rough guide. Lansweeper's asset data, taken from its customers' sites, sits closer to business fleets. Its July analysis found 21.4% of small and medium business Windows machines on Windows 10, compared with 16.6% at enterprise scale.

Local price evidence comes mostly from retail. Consumer NZ reported in October that RAM costs three times what it did in 2025, that a 32GB Dell XPS 14 rose $600 in May, and that the cheapest MacBook Air went from $2,199 to $2,599. NZ fleet pricing for business buyers isn't published. The closest business example is ETS, a US organisation whose chief information officer said Lenovo laptop prices rose about 25%, prompting a move from four-year to six-year replacement. One buyer's experience proves little about NZ quotes, though 25% makes a sensible stress test for a 2027 budget.

Waiting has a fixed end date

Consumer NZ suggests keeping devices working until at least 2028 to outlast the price spike, which suits a household. A business on commercial ESU loses cover on 10 October 2028, and the same Consumer NZ report says memory makers don't expect pressure to ease before 2028, with SK Hynix warning of a crunch lasting until at least 2030. Mercury Research's Dean McCarron also argues a long slump could produce a larger upgrade boom later. A firm using ESU to wait out the market could reach the end of cover while competing with every other late buyer for stock.

The full three years of ESU come to US$427 per device, which is the number to hold against a replacement quote. We think ESU suits a small group of machines with a dated exit plan and makes poor value as a fleet strategy.

Skipping ESU altogether is the worse option, because Windows 10 PCs keep working without it and nothing visibly fails. Lansweeper counts an average of 1,903 active known vulnerabilities on Windows 10 devices, against 652 on Windows 11. Fudzilla's report on the same data says only 14% of Windows 10 assets have ESU patches applied. Microsoft 365 apps get security updates on Windows 10 until 10 October 2028, but those updates cover the apps and leave the operating system exposed.

Hardware may be a smaller obstacle than owners assume

The most useful Lansweeper figure is that just 2.8% of Windows 10 devices fail Windows 11's hardware requirements. The share is 6.1% in transport and logistics and 3.0% in manufacturing. Lansweeper's Esben Dochy has also said small business migration often requires new hardware, and customers of an asset management vendor probably run tidier fleets than average, so test the 2.8% against your own devices.

If the pattern holds locally, many remaining Windows 10 machines are stuck for reasons memory prices don't touch. Dochy points to operating systems tied to certified systems in healthcare and to compliance or warranty terms in retail. We'd expect similar ties around shop-floor and warehouse software in NZ, along with plenty of PCs that nobody has been assigned to upgrade. Clearing those blockers costs staff time and vendor conversations, which a business can schedule regardless of what the hardware market does.

For owners planning wider change, device costs belong in the digital transformation roadmap. An unplanned 2028 refresh would compete directly with whatever system or automation project is next in the queue.

Next steps

• Build a device list this month. Record every Windows 10 machine with its owner, version, Windows 11 eligibility and the reason it hasn't moved. ESU requires version 22H2, so older builds need attention regardless.
• Upgrade eligible machines before buying anything. Pilot Windows 11 with a small group who use your line-of-business software, then work through the rest.
• Compare each remaining device on NZ prices. Set ESU, including the year one back payment, against a replacement quote and a cloud desktop. Microsoft includes ESU at no extra cost for Windows 10 virtual machines in Windows 365 and Azure Virtual Desktop, so check the subscription cost for machines that only run a few applications.
• Ask vendors for a date. Anyone supplying certified equipment or software should confirm in writing when Windows 11 support arrives. Until then, separate those machines on the network and restrict their internet access.
• Check quotes line by line. Hyperframe's Steven Dickens says PC vendors are using restricted configurations and bundles, so compare memory and storage across quotes, and buy AI PCs only for a named workload.
• Stretch the refresh cycle deliberately. If you keep Windows 11 PCs longer, budget for extended warranties and batteries, and track the change in your IT service management asset records.
• Set a retirement date for the last Windows 10 device. Choose a date well ahead of 10 October 2028 and give one named person responsibility for meeting it.